Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SEB Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-31.5 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
-41.3 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-56.7 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-59.6 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 72.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
37
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.2 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tail-f Systemstail-f.com | 2005 | No | 85 | — |
| Nuevolutionnuevolution.com | 2003 | No | 55 | — |
| Signal Processing Devices Swedenspdevices.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| Actiwaveactiwave.se | 2011 | Yes | 38 | — |
| ZealCore Embedded Solutions | 2006 | No | 32 | — |
| Ascadeascade.com | 2006 | No | 25 | — |
| InDex Pharmaceuticalsindexpharmab.com | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Coresoniccoresonic.com | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| Clavisterclavister.com | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| Donya Labssimplygon.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |