Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Second Avenue Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.2 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 44.6%
Vs median VC book
+12.7 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 57.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.4 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 71.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.3 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 65.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 10 of 11 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.9 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newsvinenewsvine.com | 2005 | No | 93 | — |
| Fanzterfanzter.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Inkd.cominkd.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| TalentSpringtalentspring.com | 2009 | No | 80 | — |
| Atomic Mogulsfantasymoguls.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Qliance Medical Managementqliance.com | 2010 | Yes | 55 | — |
| AudienceScienceaudiencescience.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Bocadabocada.com | 2005 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Azaleosazaleos.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Front Desk HQfrontdeskhq.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Location Labslocationlabs.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |