Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Seed Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (7 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.8%–73.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+4.8 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
-6.6 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 56.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.6 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 71.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.3 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 71.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.7 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 6 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowntybownty.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Nangatenangate.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Admazelyadmaze.ly | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Vivinovivino.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Nanovinanovi.com | 2012 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Taktio | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| abeoabeo.com | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| Teklatechteklatech.com | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Trustpilottrustpilot.com | 2011 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Valdermvalderm.dk | 2007 | No | 29 | — |
| CodeSealercodesealer.com | 2012 | No | 28 | — |
| Celltrixcelltrix.se | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| Amminexamminex.net | 2007 | No | 18 | — |
| Sepiorsepior.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Wantrwantr.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Acarixacarix.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Mofibomofibo.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Sensoristsensorist.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Deskwolfdeskwolf.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Bellmetricbellmetric.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |