Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Selby Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (6 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.3%–83.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.8 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 40.2%
Vs median VC book
+25.1 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 49.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+10.4 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 64.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.1 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 63.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 10.0% (1 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 1.8%–40.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-3.8 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Stagebigstage.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Attributorattributor.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| SugarSyncsugarsync.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Tempo Paymentstempo.com | 2005 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Intelleflexintelleflex.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| PopJaxpopjax.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Michelle Kaufmann Designsmkd-arc.com | 2008 | No | 30 | — |
| Bay Microsystemsbaymicrosystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Cranite Systems | 2002 | No | — | — |
| BigFixbigfix.com | 2002 | No | — | — |