Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sequoia Capital vs Kairos
93rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.5% (115 of 173 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.1%–73.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 70th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.8 pp
66.5% on 173 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
+12.5 pp
66.7% on 168 deals vs 54.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.7 pp
66.7% on 168 deals vs 69.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.5 pp
64.5% on 155 deals vs 69.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 168 of 173 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
165
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
44/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 26.2% (37 of 141). 95% Wilson interval 19.7%–34.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.1 pp
26.2% on 141 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
173 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouTube | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Pocket Gemspocketgems.com | 2010 | No | 99 | — |
| Achates Powerachatespower.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Jajahjajah.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Digital Chocolatedigitalchocolate.com | 2003 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Funny Or Diefunnyordie.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| PeakStreampakstreaminc.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Palo Alto Networkspaloaltonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Rayspanrayspan.com | 2009 | No | 96 | — |
| POPSUGARpopsugar.com | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Gurujiguruji.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Clearwell Systemsclearwellsystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Cotendocotendo.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Meviomevio.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Drawbridge Inc.drawbrid.ge | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| 2003 | Yes | 91 | — | |
| Adallomadallom.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| UUSEEuusee.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Mahalomahalo.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ravello Systemsravellosystems.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Amobeeamobee.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Druvadruva.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| MoboTapmobotap.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Soshsosh.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Onavoinsights.onavo.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| TutorVista.comtutorvista.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Songbirdgetsongbird.net | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| TokBoxtokbox.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Jasperjasper.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| CTS Mediaclicktosee.com | 2006 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Waps.cnwaps.cn | 2006 | Yes | 84 | — |
| SearchMesearchme.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Nimbulanimbula.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Hearsay Socialhearsaysocial.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| CloudSharecloudshare.com | 2009 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Mingleboxminglebox.com | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| Personetics Technologiespersonetics.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Qihoo 360 Technology360.cn | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Comvivacomviva.com | 2005 | No | 80 | — |
| RingCentralringcentral.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| ApnaPaisaapnapaisa.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Beceem Communicationsbeceem.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Interludeinterlude.fm | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Duck Duck Mooseduckduckmoose.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Elemental Cyber Securityelementalsecurity.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| Wilocitywilocity.com | 2010 | No | 78 | — |
| Kenshookenshoo.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Churn Labschurnlabs.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Fashion & Youfashionandyou.com | 2010 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Maxscend Technologiesmaxscend.com | 2006 | Yes | 77 | — |
| FireEyefireeye.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Challenge Gameschallengegames.com | 2008 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Barracuda Networksbarracuda.com | 2006 | Yes | 77 | — |
| indeniindeni.com | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| AdMob | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Joostjoost.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Kaminariokaminario.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Piazzapiazza.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Blippy Social Commerce | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| LogLogicloglogic.com | 2004 | No | 75 | — |
| PowerFilepowerfile.com | 2006 | Yes | 75 | — |
| ImageShackimageshack.com | 2007 | No | 74 | — |
| imeemimeem.com | 2004 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Qualtricsqualtrics.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Eonseons.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Acousticeyeacousticeye.com | 2010 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Birstbirst.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Oorja Fuel Cellsoorjafuelcells.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Mintigomintigo.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| 51.com51.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Konterakontera.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Storwizestorwize.com | 2007 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Sourcebitssourcebits.com | 2011 | No | 69 | — |
| eCardioecardio.com | 2009 | No | 69 | — |
| StrongViewstrongview.com | 2004 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Fliteflite.com | 2011 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Karmagetkarma.com | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Logical Appsoracle.com | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| Cast Iron Systemscastiron.com | 2003 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Advanced Power Projectsadvancedpowerprojects.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| PopularMediapopularmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Flickmeflickme.com | 2011 | No | 64 | — |
| Moblicamoblica.com | 2010 | No | 63 | — |
| Insider Pagesinsiderpages.com | 2006 | No | 63 | — |
| Trippytrippy.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Pontispontis.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Clickatellclickatell.com | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Skyriderskyrider.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| PortAuthority Technologies | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Silent Communicationsilentcom.com | 2007 | No | 59 | — |
| Collactivecollactive.com | 2007 | No | 58 | — |
| AgilOneagilone.com | 2011 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Aruba Networksarubanetworks.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Ruckus Wirelessruckuswireless.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Xoom Corporationxoom.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Miradiamiradia.com | 2004 | Yes | 53 | — |
| C12 Energyc12energy.com | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Stella & Dotstelladot.com | 2011 | No | 51 | — |
| Santur Corporationsanturcorp.com | 2005 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Navini Networks | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| ScaleMPscalemp.com | 2008 | No | 49 | — |
| Bubblybubbly.net | 2006 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Health Catalysthealthcatalyst.com | 2011 | Yes | 47 | — |
| adBriteadbrite.com | 2004 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Dashdash.net | 2006 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Satelliersatellier.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Vipshopvipshop.com | 2010 | No | 44 | — |
| Milanoo.commilanoo.com | 2011 | No | 43 | — |
| T-Networkstnetworksinc.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Mixer Labstownme.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Provigentprovigent.com | 2004 | Yes | 40 | — |
| IPGipg.com | 2010 | No | 40 | — |
| Aceva Technologies | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| 99times.cn99times.cn | 2010 | No | 37 | — |
| GameFlygamefly.com | 2003 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Navigenicsnavigenics.com | 2007 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Kavam.com | 2006 | No | 36 | — |
| Senchasencha.com | 2010 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Snaptusnaptu.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| SCIO Health Analyticssciohealthanalytics.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| ConSentry Networksconsentry.com | 2005 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Olive Softwareolivesoftware.com | 2005 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Litepointlitepoint.com | 2007 | No | 35 | — |
| mo9 (moKredit)mo9.com | 2012 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Right Hemisphererighthemisphere.com | 2005 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Zhanzuozhanzuo.com | 2006 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Narzana Technologies | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| Open Siliconopen-silicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Websensewebsense.com | 2006 | No | 28 | — |
| Unity Technologiesunity3d.com | 2009 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Conformia Softwareconformia.com | 2006 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Agitaragitar.com | 2004 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Pyramid Analyticspyramidanalytics.com | 2013 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Fonfon.com | 2006 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Nazara Technologiesnazara.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Topiotopio.com | 2003 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Bootstrap Softwarebootsoft.com | 2009 | No | 22 | — |
| Celon Laboratoriescelonlabs.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Just Dialjustdial.com | 2011 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Sanradsanrad.com | 2004 | Yes | 21 | — |
| AppLabsapplabs.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Unisfairunisfair.com | 2006 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Uiflowycombinator.com | 2009 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Discretixdiscretix.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| Scodixscodix.com | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Comsenzcomsenz.com | 2006 | No | 19 | — |
| Bihu.combihu.com | 2008 | No | 18 | — |
| Nateranatera.com | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |
| SatNav Technologiessatnavtechnologies.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| Beijing Zhijin Leye Education and Technology Co91huayi.com | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| HealthCentralhealthcentral.com | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Infobloxinfoblox.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Eddingpharm (Cayman)eddingpharm.com | 2010 | No | 12 | — |
| Tribi Embedded Technologies Private | 2008 | No | 11 | — |
| Supersuperapp.id | 2013 | Yes | 11 | — |
| Followapfollowap.com | 2005 | Yes | 10 | — |
| ideacts innovationsideacts.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| Traianatraiana.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| ITA Softwareitasoftware.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| VanceInfo Technologiesvanceinfo.com | 2006 | No | 6 | — |
| Dblur Technologies | 2006 | No | 6 | — |
| Quick Heal Technologiesquickheal.co.in | 2010 | No | 6 | — |
| MarketLivemarketlive.com | 2008 | No | 5 | — |
| Chelsio Communicationschelsio.com | 2005 | Yes | 5 | — |
| K-12 Techno Servicesk12technoservices.com | 2010 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Atom Entertainmentatomentertainment.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Viptelaviptela.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Click Securityclicksecurity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| GirnarSoftgirnarsoft.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Gracenotegracenote.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Idea Deviceideadevice.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Zazmazazma.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Kiwi, Inc.kiwiup.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Mojave Networksmojave.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| MarkLogicmarklogic.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Plaxoplaxo.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| AtomShockwave | 2001 | No | — | — |