Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Seraphim Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.5 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 41.5%
Vs median VC book
-27.3 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 52.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-43.0 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-34.5 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 59.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.9 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 12.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handmade Mobilehandmademobile.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| Flirtomaticflirtomatic.com | 2007 | No | 88 | — |
| KnowledgeMillknowledgemill.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| TestPlanttestplant.com | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Sirigensirigen.com | 2008 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Pyreospyreos.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| Aria Networksaria-networks.com | 2008 | No | 61 | — |
| PingSomepingsome.com | 2007 | No | 38 | — |