Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Seventure Partners vs Kairos
6th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (8 of 28 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 15.3%–47.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 14th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.2 pp
28.6% on 28 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-27.4 pp
28.6% on 28 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-41.7 pp
28.6% on 28 deals vs 70.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-42.4 pp
29.6% on 27 deals vs 72.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
27
Mean model percentile
49
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 9.5% (2 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 2.7%–28.9%.
Vs exit base rate
-4.2 pp
9.5% on 21 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
28 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hubspherehubsphere.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| ENTEROME Bioscienceenterome.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| SquareClocksquareclock.com | 2008 | No | 80 | — |
| L4 Digital (formerly L4 Mobile)l4digital.com | 2006 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Tigerlilytigerlilyapps.com | 2011 | No | 73 | — |
| Idylisidylis.com | 2005 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Alsyon Technologiesalsyon-technologies.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Sefas Innovationsefas.com | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Tradoriatradoria.de | 2010 | No | 65 | — |
| Web Geo Serviceswebgeoservices.com | 2012 | No | 64 | — |
| DxO Labsdxo.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| TxCelltxcell.com | 2004 | No | 55 | — |
| Biophytisbiophytis.com | 2012 | No | 55 | — |
| Nanobiotixnanobiotix.com | 2010 | No | 52 | — |
| DSO Interactivedso-interactive.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| TalentSofttalentsoft.com | 2011 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Laboratoires Nutrition & Cardiometabolismel-n-c.fr | 2012 | No | 41 | — |
| Numara Software Francecriston.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| Santaris Pharmasantaris.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| Fluxomefluxome.com | 2005 | Yes | 31 | — |
| EffiCityefficity.com | 2010 | No | 30 | — |
| VoluBillvolubill.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| QuesComquescom.com | 2010 | No | 21 | — |
| Conjectconject.com | 2008 | No | 21 | — |
| Boontyboonty.net | 2005 | No | 14 | — |
| Arlettieespacemax.privateoutlet.com | 2010 | No | 12 | — |
| Ingenicohealthcare-eid.ingenico.com | 2006 | No | 7 | — |
| Middle Peak Medicalmiddlepeakmedical.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| fromAtoBfromatob.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Personal MedSystemspersonalmedsystems.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Recommerce Solutionsrecommerce.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |