Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SG Asset Management Private Equity vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.8% (7 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.1%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.9 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
+1.0 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.8 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.6 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 70.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.4% (2 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 4.3%–42.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.1 pp
15.4% on 13 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genomic Visiongenomicvision.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Biosystems Internationalbiosys-intl.com | 2005 | No | 89 | — |
| Sequans Communicationssequans.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Force-Aforce-a.eu | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| DxO Labsdxo.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Ariane Systemsariane-systems.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Augureaugure.com | 2005 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Open-Plugopenplug.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| Adociaadocia.com | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| NEMOPTICnemoptic.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Cytomics Pharmaceuticalscytomics.fr | 2006 | No | 34 | — |
| IntegraGenintegragen.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Infinancialsinfinancials.com | 2006 | No | 20 | — |