Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Shasta Ventures vs Kairos
69th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 64.3% (27 of 42 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.2%–77.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 66th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.0 pp
64.3% on 42 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+8.3 pp
64.3% on 42 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.2 pp
64.3% on 42 deals vs 70.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.6 pp
64.3% on 42 deals vs 65.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
41
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 38.2% (13 of 34). 95% Wilson interval 23.9%–55.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+25.2 pp
38.2% on 34 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
42 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoloMetrixvolometrix.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Outrightoutright.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Arch Rock Corporationarchrock.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Mamapediamamapedia.com | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Wild Needlewildneedle.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| Geodelic Systemsgeodelic.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Tumritumri.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Right90right90.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| VideoJax | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Plastic Jungleplasticjungle.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Poppinpoppin.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SayNowsaynow.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Adometry By Googleadometry.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Marketceteramarketcetera.com | 2008 | No | 89 | — |
| Nextdoornextdoor.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Digital Air Strikedigitalairstrike.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Dollar Shave Clubdollarshaveclub.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Eye-Fieye.fi | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Recurverecurve.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| LeanDataleandatainc.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Uptakeuptake.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| NodeFlynodefly.com | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| Finspherefinsphere.com | 2008 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Nest Labsnest.com | 2010 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Anaplananaplan.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Tap to Learntaptolearn.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| WonderHillwonderhill.com | 2009 | No | 70 | — |
| Doctor on Demanddoctorondemand.com | 2013 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Zenprisezenprise.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| TeeBeeDeetbd.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| Gainspeedgainspeed.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Lithium Technologieslithium.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Apptioapptio.com | 2007 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Makara | 2008 | No | 44 | — |
| Ludi labsludilabs.com | 2005 | No | 36 | — |
| StoreFront.netstorefront.net | 2007 | No | 33 | — |
| PopJaxpopjax.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Clickabilityclickability.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Bootstrap Softwarebootsoft.com | 2009 | No | 22 | — |
| Trubatestrubates.com | 2008 | No | 18 | — |
| Logoworkslogoworks.com | 2005 | No | 17 | — |
| StrongLoopstrongloop.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |