Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sherpalo Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.9 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
-10.2 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-25.9 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 72.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.9 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 62.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.6 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictify | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| PayMate Indiagopaymate.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Studyplacesstudyplaces.com | 2008 | No | 94 | — |
| Sunglasssunglass.io | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Fraudwall Technologiesfraudwall.net | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| MapMyIndiamapmyindia.com | 2007 | No | 68 | — |
| CE Info Systemsmappls.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Hiredhired.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Zazzlezazzle.com | 2005 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Values of nwayback.archive.org | 2006 | No | 30 | — |
| Paymatepaymate.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Kotak Urjakotakurja.com | 2008 | No | 7 | — |
| Voxelvoxel.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |