Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Siemens Venture Capital vs Kairos
49th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.3% (14 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.8%–75.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 57th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.8 pp
58.3% on 24 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
-0.7 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.4 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 66.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.1 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 70.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 21 of 24 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
21
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 27.3% (6 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 13.2%–48.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.0 pp
27.3% on 22 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBotixqbotix.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Liquidia Technologiesliquidia.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| SensorDynamicssensordynamics.cc | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| EnStorageenstorageinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Kiyon | 2005 | No | 79 | — |
| Panoratiopanoratio.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| BroadLightbroadlight.com | 2004 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Qcept Technologiesqceptech.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Chemclinchemclin.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Newmerixnewmerix.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Dune Networks | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Inge Watertechnologiesinge.ag | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Factory Logicfactorylogic.com | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| COVEGAcovega.com | 2003 | No | 47 | — |
| Encelium Technologiesencelium.com | 2010 | No | 26 | — |
| Wirescanwirescan.no | 2010 | No | 23 | — |
| thinkstepthinkstep.com | 2010 | No | 20 | — |
| MontaVista Softwaremvista.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Followapfollowap.com | 2005 | Yes | 10 | — |
| VPIsystemsvpisystems.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| Global Locate | 2005 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Myriomyrio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| SmartSynchsmartsynch.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| EnOceanenocean.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |