Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Wavemaker Partners vs Kairos
9th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 35.0% (14 of 40 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 22.1%–50.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 19th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-9.8 pp
35.0% on 40 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-18.5 pp
37.8% on 37 deals vs 56.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-33.5 pp
37.8% on 37 deals vs 71.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-28.0 pp
42.4% on 33 deals vs 70.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 37 of 40 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
34
Mean model percentile
44
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.4% (2 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 2.1%–23.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-6.7 pp
7.4% on 27 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
40 labeled follow-on deals, 7 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groupsitegroupsite.com | 2009 | No | 90 | — |
| SHIFTshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Amplify.LAamplify.la | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| EVENTupeventup.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| EAT Clubmyeatclub.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Clupedia | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| SodaHeadsodahead.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| MINDBODYmindbodyonline.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| Opposing Viewsopposingviews.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Mobile Content Networksmcn-inc.com | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Tradesparqtradesparq.com | 2012 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Make It Workericgreenspan.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Information Gatewayinformationgateway.net | 2003 | No | 59 | — |
| Viagogoviagogo.com | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |
| The Bouqs Companythebouqs.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Frenzoofrenzoo.com | 2012 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Playsinoplaysino.com | 2012 | No | 39 | — |
| MaestroDevmaestrodev.com | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| XCast Labsxcastlabs.com | 2012 | No | 37 | — |
| DigitalGlobedigitalglobe.com | 2004 | No | 35 | — |
| Cognition Technologiescognition.com | 2008 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Prospect Medical Holdings, Inc.prospectmedical.com | 2004 | No | 28 | — |
| Vatorvator.tv | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Novint Technologiesnovint.com | 2004 | No | 27 | — |
| Xylemexyleme.com | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| webtidewebtide.com | 2007 | No | 16 | — |
| Media Matchmakermediamatchmaker.com | 2005 | No | 10 | — |
| Praized Media, Inc.praizedmedia.com | 2009 | No | 10 | — |
| Organic To Googocateringwa.com | 2006 | No | 9 | — |
| Existexist.com | 2006 | No | 9 | — |
| MoAnima, Inc.moanima.com | 2010 | No | 8 | — |
| Nine Star | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Small World Kids, Inc. | 2005 | No | 6 | — |
| Spark Marketing and Researchsparkcallcenter.com | 2006 | No | 4 | — |
| Koutkout.me | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| The Idealiststheidealists.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| P4RCp4rc.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Squabblersquabbler.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Chikkachikka.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Internet America, Inc.internetamerica.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| PLDTpldtonline.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Ardent Capitalardentcapital.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| MyNewFinancialAdvisormynewfinancialadvisor.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Laffsterlaffster.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Uncovetuncovet.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| On The Run Techontheruntech.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Piepie.co | 2013 | Yes | — | — |