Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sierra Ventures vs Kairos
72nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (28 of 44 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.9%–76.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 66th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.2 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+9.7 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 53.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-5.2 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.5 pp
61.9% on 42 deals vs 67.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
43
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 27.0% (10 of 37). 95% Wilson interval 15.4%–43.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.8 pp
27.0% on 37 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
44 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNN Corpdnnsoftware.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Ugenie | 2006 | No | 98 | Yes |
| ZillionTVzilliontv.tv | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Predictify | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| Alpine Data Labsalpinenow.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Bababoobababoo.com | 2011 | No | 92 | — |
| Red Arilredaril.com | 2009 | No | 85 | — |
| Paratureparature.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Element Labselementlabs.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Runarunahr.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| ZoomSystemszoomsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Steelbox, Inc.steelbox.com | 2006 | No | 81 | — |
| NP Photonicsnpphotonics.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Ribbonribbon.co | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Funtigo Corporation | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Red 5 Studiosred5studios.com | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Corrigocorrigo.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| 800APP800app.com | 2008 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Revionicsrevionics.com | 2007 | No | 72 | — |
| Meru Networksmerunetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Multigigmultigig.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Axentis Softwareaxentis.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| Infotone Communications | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| Opalis Softwareopalis.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| Code Green Networkscodegreennetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Flypaperflypaper.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Razorsightrazorsight.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Spotzer Media Groupspotzer.com | 2007 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Tenebriltenebril.com | 2006 | No | 48 | — |
| ClearAppclearapp.com | 2006 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Interactive Fitnessifholdings.com | 2007 | Yes | 47 | — |
| MIOXmiox.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Applied MicroStructuresappliedmst.com | 2005 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Everest Softwareeverestsoftwareinc.com | 2003 | Yes | 39 | — |
| MakeMyTrip.commakemytrip.com | 2006 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Hiredhired.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| SenSagesensage.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| SemEquipsemequip.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |
| TriActivetriactive.com | 2007 | No | 25 | — |
| Webcollagewebcollage.com | 2007 | Yes | 22 | — |
| InitMe | 2012 | No | 11 | — |
| Meriton Networksmeriton.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |
| Piggybackrpiggybackr.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Jetlorejetlore.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |