Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sigma Partners vs Kairos
94th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 69.8% (44 of 63 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.6%–79.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 80th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.6 pp
69.8% on 63 deals vs 41.2%
Vs median VC book
+18.5 pp
69.0% on 58 deals vs 50.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.4 pp
69.0% on 58 deals vs 65.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+5.3 pp
69.4% on 49 deals vs 64.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 58 of 63 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
58
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 13.3% (8 of 60). 95% Wilson interval 6.9%–24.2%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.4 pp
13.3% on 60 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
63 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WordStreamwordstream.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Viximoviximo.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| aPriori Technologiesapriori.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Upwork (formerly Elance-oDesk)upwork.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Leyden Energyleydenenergy.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Vlingovlingo.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Zetta.netzetta.net | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Damballadamballa.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Attributorattributor.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| VoltDBvoltdb.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| ScanCafescancafe.com | 2008 | No | 91 | — |
| Omoi (formerly Azuki)omoi.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Fortify Softwarefortify.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| ExaGrid Systemsexagrid.com | 2003 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Mobiquitymobiquityinc.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| RaveMobileSafety.comravemobilesafety.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Demandbasedemandbase.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Pindroppindrop.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Solariasolaria.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Envisenvis.com | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Sychron Advanced Technologiessychron.com | 2003 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Applied Identityappliedidentity.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Hanger Network In-Home Mediahangernetwork.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Centicecentice.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| expressor softwareexpressor-software.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Tervelatervela.com | 2008 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Acquiaacquia.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Nasuninasuni.com | 2009 | Yes | 70 | — |
| KACEkace.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Kirusakirusa.com | 2006 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Voxifyvoxify.com | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| Incipientincipient.com | 2003 | Yes | 65 | — |
| GainSpangainspan.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Digital Fueldigitalfuel.com | 2003 | No | 63 | — |
| Entellium | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| AutoVirtautovirt.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Certeoncerteon.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| CrownPeakcrownpeak.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Aprimoaprimo.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| HiWiredhiwired.com | 2008 | No | 44 | — |
| CRI Technologiescri1.com | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Jellyvisionjellyvision.com | 2008 | No | 43 | — |
| Casenetcasenetinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 40 | — |
| High Street Partnershsp.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Silverlink Communicationssilverlink.com | 2004 | No | 36 | — |
| TradeBeamtradebeam.com | 2003 | No | 33 | — |
| SDL Enterprise Technologiesidiominc.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| Nimblefish Technologiesnimblefish.com | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| Vericeptvericept.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |
| EverSpin Technologieseverspin.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Topiotopio.com | 2003 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Enkata Technologiesenkata.com | 2006 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Vendavovendavo.com | 2004 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Virtual Goods Market | 2009 | No | 16 | — |
| Encoverencover.com | 2004 | Yes | 13 | — |
| WebGen Systemswebgensystems.com | 2006 | No | 12 | — |
| Initiate Systemsinitiatesystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |
| MarketLivemarketlive.com | 2008 | No | 5 | — |
| iWattiwatt.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| GlassHouse Technologiesglasshouse.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Vormetricvormetric.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Accompany-ME Technologydexterra.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Sequence Designsequencedesign.com | 2002 | No | — | — |