Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Signia Venture Partners vs Kairos
44th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.1% (11 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.6%–79.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 56th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.4 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 45.7%
Vs median VC book
+3.2 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 57.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.2 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 73.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.6 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 73.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+37.6 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikiviki.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| AdChinaadchina.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Adifyadify.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Artilleryartillery.io | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Grow Mobilegrowmobile.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Dynamic Signaldynamicsignal.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Udemyudemy.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Funziofunzio.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| DogTime Mediadogtime.com | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| Iddictioniddiction.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Triangulatetriangulatecorp.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Rumblerumblegames.com | 2011 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Kihonkihongames.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Red Robot Labsredrobotlabs.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Pepperdatapepperdata.com | 2012 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Cie Gamesciegames.com | 2010 | No | 64 | — |
| Xyoxyo.net | 2012 | No | 58 | — |
| Kurbo Healthkurbo.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Mind Pirate, Inc.mindpirate.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |