Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Silverton Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (10 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 72.2%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+53.8 pp
100.0% on 10 deals vs 46.2%
Vs median VC book
+43.0 pp
100.0% on 9 deals vs 57.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+26.8 pp
100.0% on 9 deals vs 73.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+32.1 pp
100.0% on 9 deals vs 67.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 9 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
85
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+14.2 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SailPoint Technologiessailpoint.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Hyper9hyper9.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| WP Enginewpengine.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| OutboundEngineoutboundengine.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| B-Side Entertainmentbside.com | 2006 | Yes | 86 | — |
| CopperEgg Corporationcopperegg.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Nascentricnascentric.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| TrendKitetrendkite.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| SpareFootsparefoot.com | 2009 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Convioconvio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |