Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SJF Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.1 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
-1.2 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 58.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.3 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 73.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.8 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 62.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.7 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FieldView Solutionsfieldviewsolutions.com | 2009 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Easy Metricseasymetrics.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| groSolargrosolar.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Preclickpreclick.com | 2005 | Yes | 41 | — |
| CleanScapescleanscapes.com | 2008 | No | 35 | — |
| MedPageTodaymedpagetoday.com | 2007 | No | 31 | — |
| Community Energycommunityenergyinc.com | 2010 | No | 30 | — |