Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Skyline Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 39.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+33.4 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 39.3%
Vs median VC book
+24.9 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 47.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.5 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 64.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+21.2 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 56.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.0% (3 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 10.8%–60.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.3 pp
30.0% on 10 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAI Pharmaceuticalskaipharmaceuticals.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Genocea Biosciencesgenocea.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Concert Pharmaceuticalsconcertpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Applied Genetics Technologies Corporationagtc.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| Dicerna Pharmaceuticalsdicerna.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Tetraphase Pharmaceuticalstphase.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Calibra Medical | 2008 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Proteon Therapeuticsproteontherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| MAP Pharmaceuticalsmappharma.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Satietysatiety.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |