Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Skypoint Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 38.5% (5 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 17.7%–64.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-4.7 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 43.2%
Vs median VC book
-14.0 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.7 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-37.4 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 70.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (4 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 13.8%–60.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.0 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 15.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliptic Technologieselliptictech.com | 2005 | No | 95 | — |
| Mobivoxmobivox.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| Gridpoint Systemsgridpointsystems.com | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| Teradiciteradici.com | 2004 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Metconnex | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| Trellia Networkstrellia.com | 2005 | Yes | 81 | — |
| FirstHand Technologiessipquest.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| GridPointgridpoint.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Accedian Networksaccedian.com | 2006 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Spotwave Wirelessspotwave.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| ProntoFormsprontoforms.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| Galazargalazar.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| Meriton Networksmeriton.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |