Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Slater Technology Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.7 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-7.7 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 53.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-23.2 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 69.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.6 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 63.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–25.9%.
Vs exit base rate
-11.9 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 11.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CytoSolv | 2010 | No | 96 | — |
| MoFusemofuse.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| RxVantagerxvantage.com | 2008 | No | 92 | — |
| WaveSyndicate | 2008 | No | 81 | — |
| Dynadecdynadec.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Cardioroboticscardiorobotics.com | 2009 | Yes | 74 | — |
| RightPath Paymentsrppay.com | 2006 | No | 72 | — |
| Tizratizra.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Lucidux | 2012 | No | 61 | — |
| ProThera Biologicsprotherabiologics.com | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Locationneighborhoodscout.com | 2008 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Alektronaalektrona.com | 2010 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Anderaandera.com | 2008 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Enhanced Energy Groupenhancedenergygroup.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |