Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Smedvig Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (6 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.4%–74.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.6 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 40.4%
Vs median VC book
-10.3 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 50.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.0 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 66.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 64.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 10 of 12 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 36.4% (4 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+23.1 pp
36.4% on 11 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Groupexchangegroup.co.uk | 2003 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Streetcarstreetcar.co.uk | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Lovejuice | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Protegoprotego.com | 2004 | No | 54 | — |
| Susosuso.co.uk | 2007 | No | 54 | — |
| Ocean Outdooroceanoutdoor.com | 2008 | No | 49 | — |
| Smart Cubethesmartcube.com | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| myhomemovemyhomemove.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| SelStorselstor.com | 2008 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Picture Production Companytheppc.com | 2010 | No | 9 | — |
| PDVpdvltd.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Blueheath Holdings | 2001 | Yes | — | — |