Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Sofimac Partners vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

-25.3 pp

20.0% on 5 deals vs 45.3%

Vs median VC book

-36.5 pp

20.0% on 5 deals vs 56.5%

Vs top-quartile VC

-51.6 pp

20.0% on 5 deals vs 71.6%

Vs Y Combinator

-47.9 pp

20.0% on 5 deals vs 67.9%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

5 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Glycodeglycode.fr	2010	No	46	—
IPM Franceipmfrance.fr	2009	No	33	—
Biom'Upbiomup.com	2012	Yes	27	—
XL Groupxlgroup.com	2008	No	26	—
Allegorithmicallegorithmic.com	2010	No	16	—
Perfect Memoryperfect-memory.com	2013	Unobserved	—	—
ElsaLys Biotech	2013	Unobserved	—	—