Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sofinnova Partners vs Kairos
38th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.8% (17 of 31 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 37.8%–70.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 47th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.0 pp
54.8% on 31 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-1.1 pp
54.8% on 31 deals vs 55.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.1 pp
54.8% on 31 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.5 pp
54.8% on 31 deals vs 67.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
31
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.2% (5 of 26). 95% Wilson interval 8.5%–37.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.4 pp
19.2% on 26 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
31 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNP Green Technologydnpgreen.com | 2010 | No | 99 | Yes |
| blueKiwi Softwarebluekiwi-software.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| CrestaTechcrestatech.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| blueKiwibluekiwi-software.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Sequoia Pharmaceuticalssequoiapharmaceuticals.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| MXP4mxp4.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Neosensneo-sens.com | 2009 | No | 80 | — |
| Streamezzostreamezzo.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Hookipa Biotechhookipabiotech.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Bee Warebee-ware.net | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| MISSION Therapeuticsmissiontherapeutics.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Sefas Innovationsefas.com | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Crocus Technologycrocus-technology.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Movetismovetis.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| NuCana BioMednucanabiomed.com | 2011 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Odoo (formerly OpenERP)odoo.com | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Lectus Therapeuticslectustherapeutics.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Creabiliscreabilis-sa.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |
| Purple Labspurplelabs.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| Flexion Therapeuticsflexiontherapeutics.com | 2009 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Variopticvarioptic.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Alediaaledia.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Filaofilaomobile.com | 2005 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Sensitive Objectsensitiveobject.fr | 2009 | No | 37 | — |
| GlycoVaxynglycovaxyn.com | 2006 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Qosmosqosmos.com | 2006 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Accentaccent-soc.com | 2006 | No | 30 | — |
| VoluBillvolubill.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Mobile Digital Mediagomdm.com | 2008 | No | 22 | — |
| QuesComquescom.com | 2010 | No | 21 | — |
| Pixium Visionpixium-vision.com | 2013 | No | 17 | — |
| MetGenmetgen.fi | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| MedDaymedday-pharma.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CelluCompcellucomp.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |