Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sofinnova Ventures vs Kairos
66th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 64.3% (18 of 28 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.8%–79.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 68th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.6 pp
64.3% on 28 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+14.2 pp
68.0% on 25 deals vs 53.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.1 pp
68.0% on 25 deals vs 69.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.4 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 66.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 25 of 28 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.0% (7 of 25). 95% Wilson interval 14.3%–47.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.9 pp
28.0% on 25 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
28 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst Mobilecatalystmobile.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| KaloBios Pharmaceuticalskalobios.com | 2003 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Intellikineintellikine.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| ConteXtreamcontextream.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Alvine Pharmaceuticalsalvinepharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Catalyst Biosciencescatalystbiosciences.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Streamezzostreamezzo.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Blykblyk.com | 2006 | Yes | 66 | — |
| InteKrinintekrin.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| DiObexdiobex.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Crocus Technologycrocus-technology.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Movetismovetis.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Network Physics | 2003 | Yes | 61 | — |
| NextWave Pharmaceuticalsnextwavepharma.com | 2007 | No | 61 | — |
| Hyperion Therapeuticshyperiontx.com | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| McPhymcphy.com | 2010 | No | 59 | — |
| Odoo (formerly OpenERP)odoo.com | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Crescendo Biologicscrescendobiologics.com | 2010 | No | 55 | — |
| Labrys Biologics | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| UPEKupek.com | 2004 | No | 45 | — |
| VoluBillvolubill.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| SpineVisionspinevision.net | 2011 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Inside Secureinsidesecure.com | 2005 | Yes | 13 | — |
| HeadSproutheadsprout.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Phenomixphenomixcorp.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Guavas | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ObsEvaobseva.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Laszlo Systemslaszlosystems.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| First Aid Shot Therapyfirstaidshottherapy.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |