Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SoftBank Capital vs Kairos
53rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 59.4% (19 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.3%–74.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 55th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.0 pp
59.4% on 32 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+5.6 pp
61.3% on 31 deals vs 55.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.6 pp
61.3% on 31 deals vs 70.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.5 pp
63.3% on 30 deals vs 68.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 31 of 32 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.4% (7 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 15.6%–50.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.9 pp
30.4% on 23 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZipListziplist.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| BuzzFeedbuzzfeed.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Spanfeller Media Groupspanfellergroup.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Mobile Possemobileposse.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| FooPetsfoopets.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| Popdustpopdust.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Thumbthumb.it | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| True&Cotrueandco.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Work Marketworkmarket.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| ActionXactionx.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Swirl Networksswirl.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Desktonedesktone.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| RebelMouserebelmouse.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Poptippoptip.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| xAdxad.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Grab Mediagrab-media.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| LiteScape Technologieslitescape.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| App TOKYO Co.apptokyo.com | 2008 | No | 73 | — |
| BeliefNetbeliefnet.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| Insider Pagesinsiderpages.com | 2006 | No | 63 | — |
| VoodooVoxvoodoovox.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Insightixinsightix.com | 2007 | No | 58 | — |
| Associated Contentassociatedcontent.com | 2006 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Apreso Classroomapreso.com | 2008 | No | 54 | — |
| Betfairbetfair.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Dering Hallderinghall.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| JellyCloudventurebeat.com | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| Yoke | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Rivet Games | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Paltalkpaltalk.com | 2004 | No | 16 | — |
| Anystreamanystream.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| NowThis Newsnowthisnews.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |