Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Spark Capital vs Kairos
94th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.6% (25 of 31 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 63.7%–90.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 88th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+34.8 pp
80.6% on 31 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+21.6 pp
80.6% on 31 deals vs 59.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.2 pp
80.6% on 31 deals vs 75.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+13.7 pp
80.6% on 31 deals vs 67.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
28
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 59.1% (13 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 38.7%–76.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+46.3 pp
59.1% on 22 deals vs 12.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
31 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svpplysvpply.com | 2010 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Group Commercegroupcommerce.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Extension Entertainmentex.fm | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Admeldadmeld.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Altius Educationaltiused.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Buzzwirebuzzwire.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Sincerelysincerely.com | 2011 | No | 91 | — |
| OneRiotoneriot.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Work Marketworkmarket.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Flywirepeertransfer.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Boxeeboxee.tv | 2008 | Yes | 88 | — |
| KickAppskickapps.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Next New Networksnextnewnetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Storenvystorenvy.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| OnSwipeonswipe.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Sensr.netsensr.net | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Liftlift.gs | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Signpostsignpost.com | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| 8D World8dworld.com | 2008 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Top Prospecttopprospect.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Plaidplaid.com | 2013 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Intune Networksintunenetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Wayfairwayfair.com | 2011 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Tumblrtumblr.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Twistbox Entertainmenttwistbox.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Superpedestriansuperpedestrian.com | 2013 | Yes | 44 | — |
| thePlatformtheplatform.com | 2006 | No | 38 | — |
| Verified Identity Passverifiedidpass.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| BloomNationbloomnation.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Heydayhey.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Zazmazazma.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Close.ioclose.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Socraticsocratic.org | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Jelly HQjelly.co | 2013 | Yes | — | — |