Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Spark Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.5 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
-2.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 67.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 63.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.7 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skinkersskinkers.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| blinkbox musicblinkboxmusic.com | 2008 | No | 75 | — |
| IMImobileopenhouse.imimobile.com | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Mind Candymindcandy.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| StrategyEyestrategyeye.com | 2007 | No | 72 | — |
| Kobaltkobaltmusic.com | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| Vivactavivacta.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Alchemy Pharmatechalchemypharmatech.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |