Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Spectrum Equity vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-1.2 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 45.7%
Vs median VC book
-11.9 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 56.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.8 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 72.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-28.0 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 65.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
31
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.9% (3 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 15.8%–75.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.6 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zangozango.com | 2004 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Demand Mediademandmedia.com | 2006 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Interbank FXibfx.com | 2007 | No | 35 | — |
| finalsitefinalsite.com | 2012 | No | 28 | — |
| lynda.comlynda.com | 2013 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Business Monitor Internationalbusinessmonitor.com | 2009 | No | 23 | — |
| Jagexjagex.com | 2011 | No | 22 | — |
| SurveyMonkeysurveymonkey.com | 2009 | Yes | 16 | — |
| ITA Softwareitasoftware.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |