Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Split Rock Partners vs Kairos
31st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.3% (8 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.1%–75.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 47th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.4 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
-0.0 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.8 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 68.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.0 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 66.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (2 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 4.7%–44.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.9 pp
16.7% on 12 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entellus Medicalentellusmedical.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| FamilyFindsfamilyfinds.com | 2010 | No | 92 | — |
| Caring.comcaring.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Miramar Labsmiradry.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Cayenne Medicalcayennemedical.com | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| Transcend Medicaltranscendmedical.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Innovative Pulmonary Solutionsinnovativepulmonary.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Code42code42.com | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Gearworksgearworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| CareParent | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Calabriocalabrio.com | 2007 | No | 50 | — |
| Spanlink Communicationsspanlink.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| EBR Systemsebrsystemsinc.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Amcom Softwareamcomsoftware.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Anulexanulex.com | 2006 | Yes | 11 | — |