Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Square Peg Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (4 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.0%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 55.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.0 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 55.7%
Vs median VC book
-12.3 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 79.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.2 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 94.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.0 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 70.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
4
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budgethebudge.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Glidebuildwithglide.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Canvacanva.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| ROKTrokt.com | 2013 | No | 29 | — |
| ImageBriefimagebrief.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| goCatchgocatch.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |