Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Stage 1 Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (4 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.0%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.6 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 50.1%
Vs median VC book
+0.5 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 66.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.3 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 82.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.1 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 70.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InStream Mediainstreamglobal.com | 2009 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Maple Farm Mediamaplefarmmedia.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Marxentmarxentlabs.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Delfigo Securitydelfigosecurity.com | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Openbayopenbay.com | 2013 | No | 59 | — |
| dondeEsta™dondeesta.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PureCarspurecars.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |