Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Stage One Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (3 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–88.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.1 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+3.5 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 56.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.7 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 72.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.8 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 66.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
5 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infochimpsinfochimps.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Breezybreezy.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| GroupSwimgroupswim.com | 2008 | No | 71 | — |
| Cohumancohuman.com | 2009 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Notice Technologiesnoticetechnologies.com | 2010 | No | 57 | — |