Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Star Ventures vs Kairos
18th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.1% (8 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–63.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 30th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-0.3 pp
42.1% on 19 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-8.0 pp
44.4% on 18 deals vs 52.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.4 pp
44.4% on 18 deals vs 65.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-34.8 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 72.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 18 of 19 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.2% (4 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 9.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.0 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siano Mobile Siliconsiano-ms.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| SandLinkssandlinks.com | 2006 | No | 80 | — |
| Vidyovidyo.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Sipera Systemssipera.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Neocrafts | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| BroadLightbroadlight.com | 2004 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Acopia Networks | 2003 | Yes | 60 | — |
| MPVexperian.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Negevtech | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Impress Software Solutions | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| AppTriggerapptrigger.com | 2007 | Yes | 45 | — |
| EXFOexfo.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| AeroScoutaeroscout.com | 2007 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Celletracelletra.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Cadentcadentinc.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| OrSenseorsense.com | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Followapfollowap.com | 2005 | Yes | 10 | — |
| VPIsystemsvpisystems.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| Minteramintera.com | 2000 | No | — | — |