Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Starfish Ventures vs Kairos
6th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 23.5% (4 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.6%–47.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 11th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-20.2 pp
23.5% on 17 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
-29.9 pp
23.5% on 17 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-44.8 pp
23.5% on 17 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-43.3 pp
23.5% on 17 deals vs 66.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.4% (2 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 4.3%–42.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.9 pp
15.4% on 13 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evostorvirsto.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Aktanaaktana.com | 2011 | Yes | 94 | — |
| 5th Finger5thfinger.com | 2008 | No | 90 | — |
| Xelor Software | 2005 | No | 88 | — |
| MetaCDNmetacdn.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Ourcastourcast.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| StyleTreadstyletread.com.au | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Aruspexaruspex.com | 2008 | No | 73 | — |
| Austhink Softwareausthink.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| Engana Ptyengana.com | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| Audinateaudinate.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Ofidiumofidium.com | 2009 | No | 59 | — |
| Impedance Cardiology Systems | 2006 | No | 53 | — |
| Protagonist Therapeuticsprotagonist-inc.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| Distradistra.com | 2005 | No | 38 | — |
| Quickcomm Software Solutionsquickcomm.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Monitoring Divisionmonitoringdivision.com | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Nitro PDFnitropdf.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| BugHerdbugherd.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |