Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Start Fund vs Kairos
31st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.3% (9 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 33.2%–76.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 46th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.5 pp
56.3% on 16 deals vs 46.7%
Vs median VC book
-2.5 pp
56.3% on 16 deals vs 58.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.9 pp
56.3% on 16 deals vs 74.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.8 pp
56.3% on 16 deals vs 78.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%.
Vs exit base rate
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composemongohq.com | 2011 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| MindSumomindsumo.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| SmartThingssmartthings.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Scanscan.me | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| DoubleRecalldoublerecall.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Cleverclever.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Grubwithusgrubwithus.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Kamcordkamcord.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| SwipeGoodswipegood.com | 2011 | No | 79 | — |
| Viacycleviacycle.com | 2012 | No | 77 | — |
| Fivestarsfivestars.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| BakedCodebakedcode.com | 2011 | No | 72 | — |
| SellStagesellstage.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Imgiximgix.com | 2011 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Noteleafnoteleaf.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| First Opinionfirstopinionapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |