Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Stata Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.4 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 41.6%
Vs median VC book
+11.1 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-5.2 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.2 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 59.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–27.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.4 pp
0.0% on 10 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| neoSaejmoneyaisle.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Yottaayottaa.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| WiTricitywitricity.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| ComAbilitycomability.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| ZikBit | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| OmniGuideomni-guide.com | 2008 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Luminus Devicesluminus.com | 2006 | Yes | 26 | — |
| AXSUN Technologiesaxsun.com | 2006 | No | 23 | — |
| Emberembercopilot.ai | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Nanteronantero.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |