Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Sterling Partners vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+13.0 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 44.1%

Vs median VC book

+1.9 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 55.2%

Vs top-quartile VC

-12.7 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 69.8%

Vs Y Combinator

-14.8 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 72.0%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Avectraavectra.com	2007	No	68	—
SAVOsavogroup.com	2005	Yes	60	—
First Choice Emergency Roomfcer.com	2011	No	36	—
School of Rockschoolofrock.com	2011	Yes	34	—
Desert Industrial X-Raydesertndt.com	2012	No	26	—
SecureNet Payment Systemssecurenet.com	2012	Yes	24	—
IO.comio.com	2008	Yes	4	—