Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sting Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 9.1% (1 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 1.6%–37.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-32.8 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
-43.9 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 53.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-60.6 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-52.4 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 61.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
33
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.2 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 12.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ByteActivebyteactive.com | 2008 | No | 55 | — |
| Bioservo Technologiesbioservo.com | 2007 | No | 44 | — |
| Mobile Sorcerymosync.com | 2007 | No | 44 | — |
| MoSyncmosync.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Predectpredect.se | 2008 | No | 36 | — |
| Hyper Urban Level User Sweden | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| Movinto Funmovintofun.com | 2010 | No | 30 | — |
| Antrad Medicalantrad.se | 2011 | No | 26 | — |
| SEEC ABseec.se | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Vocabvocab.se | 2008 | No | 21 | — |
| Scint-Xscint-x.com | 2011 | No | 15 | — |