Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Stonehenge Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.2 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
+4.9 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 52.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.2 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 67.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.2 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 73.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 7 of 8 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-15.8 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 15.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Mediacritical-media.com | 2004 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Infrastruct Securityinfrastructsecurity.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| Thetis Pharmaceuticalsthetispharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| EraGen Bioscienceseragen.com | 2006 | No | 62 | — |
| ContinuumRxcontinuumrx.com | 2012 | Yes | 56 | — |
| SensorTransensortran.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Lumetricslumetrics.com | 2005 | No | 38 | — |
| Hospicelinkhospicelink.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Knovelknovel.com | 2002 | No | — | — |