Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Storm Ventures vs Kairos
70th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 67.9% (19 of 28 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.3%–82.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 72nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.5 pp
67.9% on 28 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+12.0 pp
66.7% on 27 deals vs 54.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.7 pp
66.7% on 27 deals vs 68.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.4 pp
65.4% on 26 deals vs 70.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 27 of 28 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
27
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.0% (7 of 25). 95% Wilson interval 14.3%–47.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.9 pp
28.0% on 25 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
28 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eSign Servicesacrobat.adobe.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Cellfireinfo.cellfire.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| BookRenter.combookrenter.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Appceleratorappcelerator.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| MobileIronmobileiron.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| AdMobiusadmobius.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Auvitek Internationalauvitek.com | 2006 | No | 93 | — |
| Flintflintk12.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Qumuqumu.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| 3Leaf3leafsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Transera Communicationstranserainc.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Wallitwallitapp.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| YieldBuildyieldbuild.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| XDN/3Crowd Technologies3crowd.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Metacloudmetacloud.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Kidarokidaro.com | 2005 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Ample Communicationsamplepk.net | 2004 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Averailaverail.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Jangljangl.com | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Rafterrafter.com | 2009 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Splashtopsplashtop.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Ad Infuseadinfuse.com | 2005 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Asokaasokatech.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| MaulSoup | 2010 | No | 43 | — |
| Com2uS Corp.global.com2us.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Greenlight Technologiesgreenlightcorp.net | 2011 | No | 41 | — |
| Qwaqqwaq.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Sierra Monolithicsmonolithics.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |