Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Summerhill Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (6 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.0%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+55.9 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
+43.9 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 56.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+30.6 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 69.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+24.8 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 75.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumptapjumptap.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Salesforce Radian6radian6.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| BLINQ Networksblinqnetworks.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| C2FOc2fo.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Capella Photonicscapellainc.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| NextPoint Networksnextpoint.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |