Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Summit Partners vs Kairos
4th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 22.2% (4 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.0%–45.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 10th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-24.0 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 46.2%
Vs median VC book
-36.7 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 59.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-51.9 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 74.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-50.6 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 72.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
31
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+36.9 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zandozando.co.za | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Tiny Printstinyprints.com | 2008 | No | 57 | — |
| NetWitnessnetwitness.com | 2010 | No | 53 | — |
| Wowza Media Systemswowza.com | 2012 | No | 52 | — |
| WestWingwestwing.de | 2012 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Raptrapt.com | 2006 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Jumiajumia.com.ng | 2013 | Yes | 44 | — |
| B&W Tekbwtek.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| Philz Coffeephilzcoffee.com | 2013 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Innov-X Systemsinnovx.com | 2007 | No | 27 | — |
| 360T360t.com | 2012 | No | 20 | — |
| M/A-COMmacomtech.com | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| CareCentrixcarecentrix.com | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Access Information Managementinformationprotected.com | 2011 | No | 14 | — |
| Empower RF Systemsempowerrf.com | 2006 | No | 10 | — |
| Krishidhan Seedskrishidhanseeds.com | 2010 | No | 8 | — |
| Winshuttlewinshuttle.com | 2010 | No | 5 | — |
| AVAST Softwareavast.com | 2010 | No | 1 | — |
| JAMF Softwarejamfsoftware.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Systems Maintenance Servicessysmaint.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |