Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sunstone Capital vs Kairos
27th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.3% (8 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.1%–75.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 41st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.6 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 45.8%
Vs median VC book
-6.1 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 59.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.8 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 75.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.6 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 67.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+27.9 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seriouslyseriously.com | 2013 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Layarlayar.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Neo Technologyneotechnology.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Issuuissuu.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Gidsygidsy.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| PAYMILLpaymill.com | 2012 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Orphazymeorphazyme.com | 2011 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Microtaskmicrotask.com | 2010 | No | 64 | — |
| Biomonitorbiomonitor.dk | 2008 | No | 59 | — |
| Preview Networkspreviewnetworks.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| FlatFrog Laboratoriesflatfrog.com | 2010 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Anergisanergis.ch | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| Santaris Pharmasantaris.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| InfoHubbleinfohubble.com | 2010 | No | 23 | — |
| addwishaddwish.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Follicumfollicum.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| GameAnalyticsgameanalytics.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Cantargiacantargia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |