Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sutter Hill Ventures vs Kairos
41st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.8% (17 of 31 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 37.8%–70.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 49th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.3 pp
54.8% on 31 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+4.2 pp
58.6% on 29 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.8 pp
58.6% on 29 deals vs 69.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.5 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 66.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 29 of 31 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
29
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 34.5% (10 of 29). 95% Wilson interval 19.9%–52.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.1 pp
34.5% on 29 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
31 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Storagepurestorage.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| AkaRx | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Digital Chocolatedigitalchocolate.com | 2003 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Clovercloverapp.co | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Sumo Logicsumologic.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Room 77room77.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Platforaplatfora.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| PINC Solutionspincsolutions.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| VoloMediavolomedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| SeeSaw Networksseesawnetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| RedSeal, Inc.redseal.co | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Kadoinkkadoink.com | 2008 | No | 83 | — |
| Acceleron Pharmaacceleronpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| SilverRail Technologiessilverrailtech.com | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Indicative Software | 2006 | No | 73 | — |
| LifeSize, a Division of Logitechlifesize.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Bixbix.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Roxro Pharmaroxropharma.com | 2007 | No | 67 | — |
| BARRX Medicalbarrx.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Forterra Systemsforterrainc.com | 2009 | No | 56 | — |
| Restoration Roboticsrestorationrobotics.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| Ruckus Wirelessruckuswireless.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Grain Managementgraingp.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Right Hemisphererighthemisphere.com | 2005 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Streetlinestreetline.com | 2010 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Boxergetboxer.com | 2013 | No | 24 | — |
| Ceonceon.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| Radiance | 2008 | No | 14 | — |
| Yaolan.comyaolan.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |
| AmberPointamberpoint.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Actianceactiance.com | 2002 | No | — | — |