Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
T-Venture vs Kairos
14th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 39.1% (9 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 22.2%–59.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 25th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-4.5 pp
39.1% on 23 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
-15.2 pp
39.1% on 23 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-30.5 pp
39.1% on 23 deals vs 69.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-31.3 pp
36.4% on 22 deals vs 67.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (6 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 18.5%–61.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.7 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 12.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracklecrackle.com | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| BelAir Networksbelairnetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Pie Digitalpiedigital.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Boxfishboxfish.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| playnikplaynik.de | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| Mobile Event Guidemobileeventguide.de | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Percellopercello.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| 1bib1bib.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| appruptapprupt.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Netbiscuitsnetbiscuits.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| Intelligent Apps (mytaxi)mytaxi.com | 2010 | Yes | 74 | — |
| VoiceObjectsvoiceobjects.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Apertioapertio.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| sonessones.com | 2011 | No | 63 | — |
| CipherCloudciphercloud.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| clipkitclipkit.com | 2012 | No | 50 | — |
| Axentraaxentra.com | 2007 | No | 49 | — |
| 9flats9flats.com | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| Swoodooswoodoo.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Nova Rationova-ratio.de | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Cittadino | 2007 | No | 25 | — |
| VeliQveliq.com | 2011 | Yes | 22 | — |
| ASSIAassia-inc.com | 2009 | Yes | 22 | — |
| NumberFournumberfour.eu | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |