Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Tallwood Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.3 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
-3.3 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.8 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 67.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.6 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 67.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 13 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (4 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 13.8%–60.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.2 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silicon Clockssiliconclocks.co | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Audienceaudience.com | 2009 | No | 87 | — |
| Redfern Integrated Opticsrio-inc.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Ozmo Devicesozmodevices.com | 2006 | No | 83 | — |
| Wilocitywilocity.com | 2010 | No | 78 | — |
| Cavendish Kineticscavendish-kinetics.com | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| Sequoia Communicationssequoiacommunications.com | 2004 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Crossing Automationcrossinginc.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Alphionalphion.com | 2005 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Axiom Microdevicesaxiom-micro.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| SVTC Technologiessvtc.com | 2009 | No | 27 | — |
| T-RAM Semiconductort-ram.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Teja Technologies | 2002 | No | — | — |