Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Target Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.8% (7 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.1%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.3 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 48.6%
Vs median VC book
-7.8 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 61.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.9 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 76.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.7 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 67.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 62.5% (5 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 30.6%–86.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+49.9 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JouleXjoulex.net | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| hetrashetras.com | 2009 | Yes | 79 | — |
| GameGeneticsgamegenetics.com | 2012 | No | 58 | — |
| Q Interactiveqinteractive.com | 2005 | No | 57 | — |
| P21p-21.de | 2009 | No | 53 | — |
| Scoreloopscoreloop.com | 2009 | Yes | 34 | — |
| ChipVision Designchipvision.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| MergeOpticsmergeoptics.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| THEVAtheva.com | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| Dacos Softwaredacos.com | 2006 | No | 14 | — |
| So1so1.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| tado°tado.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Finanzchef24finanzchef24.de | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Falcon Socialfalconsocial.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |