Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Technology Crossover Ventures vs Kairos
7th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 25.0% (4 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 10.2%–49.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 12th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-18.5 pp
25.0% on 16 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
-28.8 pp
25.0% on 16 deals vs 53.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-43.1 pp
25.0% on 16 deals vs 68.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-42.6 pp
25.0% on 16 deals vs 67.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
38
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.1% (3 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–50.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.9 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligent Beautyibinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Zillowzillow.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| JustFabcorp.justfab.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Adknowledgeadknowledge.com | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| Tiny Printstinyprints.com | 2008 | No | 57 | — |
| GMIgmi-mr.com | 2006 | No | 54 | — |
| Whitepageswhitepages.com | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| Embanetembanet.com | 2007 | No | 21 | — |
| MoneyExpertmoneyexpert.com | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| XATAxata.com | 2009 | No | 17 | — |
| BeVocalbevocal.com | 2005 | No | 15 | — |
| Business Engine | 2005 | No | 14 | — |
| Renren Inc.renren-inc.com | 2006 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Automated Trading Deskatdesk.com | 2007 | No | 13 | — |
| Webrootwebroot.com | 2005 | No | 10 | — |
| Merklemerkleinc.com | 2010 | No | 6 | — |