Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Technology Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (6 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–87.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.8 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
+15.2 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 51.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.1 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.7 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 65.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+36.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITM Softwareitm-software.com | 2003 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Solexelsolexel.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| TRIA Beautytriabeauty.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Alta Devicesaltadevices.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| NanoGramnanogram.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| EmSenseemsense.com | 2009 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Revance Therapeuticsrevance.com | 2007 | Yes | 36 | — |
| AVA Solaravasolar.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Sensicoresensicore.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |