Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Tekton Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (7 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.9%–97.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+39.7 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 47.8%
Vs median VC book
+26.6 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 60.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+11.9 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 75.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+13.3 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 74.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
90
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 60.0% (3 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–88.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+49.0 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 11.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Signifydsignifyd.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Ifeelgoodsifeelgoods.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| UserVoiceuservoice.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| TastemakerXtastemakerx.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| DoodleDeals Inc.doodledeals.com | 2010 | No | 92 | — |
| EAT Clubmyeatclub.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Betablecorp.betable.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| PriceMatchpricematch.travel | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Sensopiasensopia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |